LONDON — America’s allies in Europe are debating what Donald Trump’s win in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election could mean for their security and prosperity amid concerns that the next four years may once again be characterized by a turbulent transatlantic alliance.
European interests
About 50 European leaders met in Budapest on Thursday for a summit of the European Political Community, which was set up in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must stand up for itself as it prepares for the next Trump presidency in the United States.
“There is a geopolitical situation where it is clear that we have two blocs: the United States of America on one side and China on the other, which above all seek their own interests,” Macron told the other European leaders.
“I think that our role here in the European Union is not to comment on the election of Donald Trump, to wonder if it is good or not. He was elected by the American people, and he is going to defend the interests of American people and that is legitimate and that is a good thing,” he said.
“The question is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans? That is the only question that we should ask ourselves. And for me, I think that is our priority,” he said.
NATO
The NATO alliance remains the bedrock of Europe’s security.
“The first implication for the alliance is how to continue support for Ukraine if there’s an expected drawdown of military assistance from the U.S.,” said Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European security at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute.
“That can either be delivered through NATO — and there were some steps taken in this summer to sort of formalize those structures — but still significantly less than where it needs to be. It can also be done through the EU as well, which might increase slightly but probably not enough. Or it can be done bilaterally,” Arnold told VOA.
“I think actually the mechanisms are probably largely irrelevant. It’s more about the cost to individual nations, and that’s going to have to ramp up pretty quickly if they’re going to be able to have that impact,” he said.
Shortfall
Does Europe have the capacity to make up any shortfall from a U.S. withdrawal of support for Kyiv?
“Yes, but it would take a lot more effort than Europe is making now,” according to analyst Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform. “And I think there will be some, perhaps in Germany, perhaps elsewhere, who will say the Ukrainians are just going to have to put up with losing some of their territory.
“I think for the Baltic states, for the Nordic states, Poland — they will look at this and they will say, ‘Russia is going to be an existential threat to us if it is allowed to control Ukraine. And therefore we must step up our efforts,'” Bond said.
On the campaign trail, Trump said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on day one, although he didn’t elaborate on how that would be achieved. In the past he has boasted of a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Peace deal?
Ukraine fears being forced into an unfavorable peace deal — and Europeans might change their calculations, said analyst Arnold of RUSI.
“There might be a bit of a worry where there’s some within Europe who say, “Why would we ramp up aid now if there’s going to be a negotiated settlement fairly soon? And I think the real risk for Europe as a whole — the EU but also NATO — is that actually the U.S. and Russia might start to do these negotiations without them,” Arnold said.
Leverage
There are deeper concerns that the U.S. might withdraw wider support for European security. Former government officials say Trump considered pulling the U.S. out of NATO altogether in his first term.
“One of the very few consistent beliefs that Trump has held to since he entered politics has been the idea that the United States is being taken advantage of by its allies,” said Jonathan Monten, a U.S. foreign policy analyst at University College London.
“At times, Trump threatened to withdraw from the alliance altogether but was ultimately held back. So the million-dollar question … is whether or not he will actually act on that threat,” Monten told VOA.
“I think he likes the idea that he’s keeping foreign allies as well as adversaries guessing as to his ultimate intentions. I think he sees that as a source of leverage, as a source of power,” he said.
NATO’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, who took over the role October 1, has struck a more upbeat tone, praising Trump for getting allies to spend more on defense.
“When he was president, he was the one in NATO who stimulated us to move over the 2% [of GDP spending target],” Rutte told reporters in Budapest on Thursday.
Tariffs
It’s not only security fears that are haunting European capitals. America’s allies could also face economic turbulence when Trump enters the White House.
“The [Trump] claims of putting about 60% or more tariffs on all imports from China will have to have a major disruptive impact on world trade, and there will be repercussions on the EU, on Europe, on the U.K. and elsewhere. We can expect also tariffs on imports from the EU as well,” said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at American University in Washington.
“One element that I think is going to be absolutely critical for Europe, for the EU, is to work on protecting its unity and its unanimity. Trump, I think, is likely to try to adopt a divide and rule approach,” Martin said.
Unpredictability
Trump’s unpredictability means there is little Europe’s leaders can do to prepare, said Monten.
“They can try flattery,” he said. “They can try to offer him deals that benefit him personally, but it’s unclear what exactly they would have to offer. They can offer him the kind of stature or respect that comes along with a big grand summit or trade deal. He seems to crave that kind of respect.
“But when it comes to actual tangible concrete results, it is unclear what levers they have either to threaten him with or to cajole him with,” Monten told VOA.
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